tEsSA's MeMOry aNd fUTurE

為什麼挑選這一篇文章？因為我好納悶，這篇文章幾乎沒有分析，也缺乏外國記者對台灣的觀察論點，只是單純描述517的現場跟台灣一些現象，這感覺不是經濟學人文章的水準。但其中提到一點，民調顯示，517遊行過後，民進黨並沒有在國民黨一大片爛的環境中脫穎而出...這的確跟現況相符，令人深思...

原文請參照：http://www.economist.com/world/asia/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=13707720

Street life

May 21st 2009 | TAIPEI
From The Economist print edition

The opposition barks for want of bite

EVER since Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan’s president, took office a year ago, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which supports formal independence from China, has harangued his China-friendly policies. On May 17th party supporters vented their anger on the streets. Demonstrators waved green flags calling Mr Ma a traitor, as they flooded the square in front of the presidential office in Taipei. The DPP claimed 600,000 took part, though the police estimated a mere 76,000. Another rally swamped Kaohsiung in the south. Later that night thousands joined a 24-hour sit-in in Taipei.

Street protests are about all the DPP can do. Mr Ma and his Nationalist Party, the Kuomintang (KMT), have hugely eased the tensions with the mainland that marked the presidency of the DPP’s Chen Shui-bian from 2000 to 2008, signing a series of agreements liberalising commercial ties. The DPP is out in the cold. It won 42% of the vote in parliamentary elections last year but holds only 27 of the 112 seats in the legislature, compared with 80 for the KMT. The DPP complains that the government is ignoring parliamentary scrutiny, negotiating with China in secret, and that Taiwan’s democracy is deteriorating. Another target of the rallies was proposed new legislation to give the police greater powers to control demonstrations.

Joseph Wu, a moderate and the former DPP government’s representative in America, says that if the KMT cannot find a way of co-operating with the DPP the party is bound to become more radical. Already hardliners and moderates are starting to unite in calling for the immediate release of Mr Chen, who has been in prison for six months for alleged corruption, without yet being found guilty, and who this month has faced new charges. DPP moderates used to distance themselves from Mr Chen’s corrupt image.

In a fiery speech to the crowd at the end of the sit-in in Taipei, Tsai Ing-wen, the DPP’s chairwoman, said the party’s next move would be to organise a referendum on Mr Ma’s vague plan for a free-trade agreement with China. Mr Ma insists this will help Taiwan weather the impact of China’s free-trade agreements with South-East Asian countries, which take effect next year. But the DPP fears political concessions will be made.

The turnout at the rallies has shown that the DPP and its allies are still a force to be reckoned with. But street protests may alienate middle-of-the-road voters and business. Polls show that, though the KMT’s popularity has dwindled with the financial crisis, the DPP has not benefited.

Mr Ma’s China policies, moreover, have popular aspects. The stockmarket has been doing well, buoyed by the agreements with China. And on May 18th, for the first time in 38 years, Taiwan’s health minister took a seat as an observer in the World Health Assembly in Geneva. At a press conference this week, Mr Ma insisted that none of the nine agreements his government has reached with China compromised Taiwan’s sovereignty, and that there will be no turning back.