tEsSA's MeMOry aNd fUTurE

一個令人難過的天災，人是無法勝天的，我們該學習的是與水共生共榮，而不是把水拒於千里之外，順著自然才能夠確保長治久安，因此沒有必要的治水工程，也就免了八～

文章是經濟學人對八八水災的政治解讀，附上逐句翻譯，如果有錯誤或更正的處，請不吝指教。

The political storm   (原文連結)

Aug 20th 2009
After its dismal handling of the disaster, the government, too, is covered in mud

經過了疲軟無力的災後處理，政府也卡在泥沼中。

A FORTNIGHT after Typhoon Morakot first struck Taiwan on August 6th the storm continued to wreak havoc on the island. Extensive flooding and landslides had claimed some 500 lives, according to Ma Ying-jeou, the president, and caused at least $2 billion-worth of damage to property. About 400 people were thought to have died in southern Kaohsiung county alone. There, the authorities have given up hope of finding more survivors in Hsiao Lin, the hardest-hit village, which a landslide had buried in mud.

在莫拉克颱風侵襲台灣2週後，風暴衍生出的浩劫依然存留在這個島上。依據總統馬英九的說法，淹水和土石流已經造成了500人傷亡且財產損失高達2百萬美元。受創最慘重的高雄小林村，將近有400個民眾已經在此被活埋，當局也已經放棄搜救生還者的希望。

Morakot is also doing political damage. President Ma faces harsh criticism for his government’s slow response to the disaster, and in particular for its surprising decision to spurn foreign offers of aid in the early stages. Three senior officials have already offered their resignations. The reputation of Mr Ma himself has taken a knock.

莫拉克颱風也帶來了政治災難，對於馬政府救災反應遲緩及拒絕外國援助的作為，已強力受到社會的嚴厲指責，3位資深的政務官已經遞出辭呈，而馬英九自己也受到相當大的批評。

The first to offer up his political head was Andrew Hsia, a deputy foreign minister, who took responsibility on August 17th for the rejection of foreign offers of assistance. Two days later Chen Chao-min, the defence secretary, and Hsueh Hsiang-chuan, secretary-general of the cabinet, also offered to resign. A wholesale cabinet shuffle is to follow next month, and other senior officials may not survive in their posts even that long.

第1位遞出辭呈的是外交部的夏立言，他是為了在8月17日拒絕外國援助而下台負責；2天後國防部的陳肇敏和行政院秘書長也辭職下台。下個月會舉行全面的內閣改組，但有些政務官恐怕也無法在他們的位置上坐到那麼久。

Mr Ma has long been seen as a smooth operator, able to glide unscathed through political turmoil. But this time the apologies he has made may not be enough to see him through. An opinion poll this week by TVBS, a Taiwanese news channel, showed a dramatic drop in his approval rating: by 25 percentage points since June, to an all-time low of 16%. Other polls give him higher ratings but show a similar decline.

長期以來，馬英九總是能在政治混亂中毫髮無傷的脫困，但這次他的道歉似乎無法將他救出這個災難，依據台灣媒體TVBS的民意調查，馬英九的滿意度從6月至今已經降低25％，跌破16％， 其他的民調即使給他高一些數字的滿意度，但是民意降低的趨勢依舊。

Reinforcing this message, angry residents of Hsiao Lin angrily scolded Mr Ma on August 19th when he made his first visit there since the typhoon. Viewers across Taiwan saw the president quietly endure tongue-lashings from survivors and the bereaved. After a comfortable election victory, Mr Ma took office 15 months ago with promises to focus on the economy and improve ties with China. He has already given warning that Taiwan’s third-quarter economic figures will suffer because of Morakot. But he has also promised a more efficient recovery effort and an investigation into the shortcomings in the government response. At least neither he nor his parliamentarians face elections this year, though there will be local polls.

2009年8月19日，憤怒的小林居民大聲斥責首度來此勘災的馬英九，台灣的觀眾看見總統安靜地忍受生還者以及罹難者的抱怨。經過了一場舒服的勝利選戰，15個月前就任的馬英九保證經濟會更好，並且加強與中國的連結。經過這次莫拉克颱風，他預先對第3季的經濟數字提出衰退的警示，但他也承諾將有效率地執行災後重建，並調查政府救災的龜速；雖然今年底有地方選舉，但至少他跟他的國會議員們目前不需要面對選舉的考驗。

In one striking proposal, Mr Ma said Taiwan’s army would reorder its priorities towards handling big disasters. Now, he told a news conference, our enemy is not necessarily the people across the Taiwan Strait but nature. Taiwan would cancel orders for American military helicopters and buy disaster-relief helicopters instead.

另外一項惹人注意的提案，馬英九聲稱，台灣軍隊需要重新調整對大自然災害處理的優先順序，他在記者會上說道，我們的敵人已經不是台灣海峽對岸的中國人，而是大自然。台灣會取消對美國軍用直昇機的訂單而改購救災用的直昇機。

The ever-complex and ever-delicate relationship between Taiwan and China was bound to play a role in Morakot’s political aftermath. For its part, China was quick to respond, not only expressing sympathy for the people it refers to as “compatriots” but also providing $29m in relief funds, prefabricated houses, sleeping bags and sanitation supplies.

前所未有的複雜及棘手的台中關係在莫拉克颱風後造成政治餘波，中國迅速的表達對「同胞」的關愛，更捐助2千9百萬美元、組合屋、睡袋及衛生用品。

Yet many people in Taiwan also saw China as the reason why the government had to think twice before accepting help from America or Japan. Hints that Taiwan might be enhancing its military or official links with other powers tend to provoke Chinese bluster. More likely, the government simply underestimated the scale of the disaster—the worst storm in 50 years. After all, on August 16th, an American cargo plane arrived. It was the first American military aircraft to land in Taiwan in the 30 years since America severed its diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favour of China.

但是台灣的人民也觀察到，政府在接受美國或日本援助前，考慮的因素是中國；台灣如果加強他與其他國家的軍事或政務連結，恐怕會對中國造成挑釁，更可能的是，政府低估這次50年以來最慘災害的強度。最終在8月16日，美國裝載貨物的飛機抵達，這也是台美斷交30年來，美國軍機首度降落台灣。

經濟學人相關報導：Taiwan's disastrous typhoon